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Paced by the dough segment’s whopping 56.3% gain, bread and dough outperformed the frozen department as a whole. But the category needs its space back if the momentum is to continue.

Faced with the prospect of month upon month at home, many consumers decided to try their hand at bread baking for a time this past spring. But shortages of flour early in the pandemic combined with the realization that scratch-baking isn’t all it’s cracked up to be led some to the frozen dough set instead. As a result, says Kenny Farnsworth, president of Salt Lake City-based Rhodes Bake-N-Serv (rhodesbakenserv.com), the sleepy segment has seen “tremendous” growth recently, driven primarily by first-time users.

During the 12 weeks ended June 14 (versus the same period a year ago), frozen dough sales shot up 56.3% to $64.45 million across channels, reports Chicago-based market research firm IRI (iriworldwide.com). Category leader Rhodes saw its sales skyrocket nearly 75% while top-10 player Bridgford was up 116.8%. But Farnsworth believes sales will remain strong at least through the end of 2020, making it imperative for retailers that had reduced space for the segment to make room for an adequate number of SKUs. Beyond that, “We fully expect there will be consumers who were introduced to the convenience and quality of frozen dough and will continue to shop the category long after the pandemic has ceased,” says Farnsworth.

FRESH BAKED SALES UP 30.9%

Mason Dixie Biscuit Co. rolls out three new biscuit varieties featuring familiar fl avors in a new format.

Although the gains weren’t quite as impressive, the frozen fresh baked subcategory also put up some big numbers recently: Dollars sales jumped 30.9% to $215.62 million, according to IRI, outpacing the frozen department as a whole by almost a full percentage point. Not everyone has time for baking (even when the dough is already made), explains Anthony Colson, director of sales for the Eastern U.S.A. at Mississauga, Ontario-based From the Hearth (fromthehearth.com), maker of the Furlani brand. So many consumers concerned over the safety of fresh bakery items opted for frozen bread, rolls and biscuits instead.

“Particularly during a pandemic,” adds Jackie Brenkel, From the Hearth’s marketing director for North America, “there’s something very comforting and nostalgic about the aroma of fresh baked garlic bread filling the kitchen – something consumers can’t get from a product that doesn’t come from their own oven.”

Indeed, says Ayeshah Abuelhiga, founder and CEO of Baltimore- based Mason Dixie Biscuit Co. (masondixiebiscuits.com), “We think consumers who ‘discovered’ the frozen bread set during the pandemic are re-evaluating their use of fresh for formats like biscuits since fresh-from-the-oven taste is so much more craveable and comforting – and even fresher than fresh.” However, she says, category contraction that began a few months before the coronavirus struck is starting to become a problem now that sales are booming. If growth is to continue, frozen bread needs its space back.

Both Brenkel and Colson also expect sales of frozen fresh baked products to remain strong for the foreseeable future, but they, too, are concerned about shrinking sets. “Some retailers are going to a two- or three-brand strategy, which eliminates a lot of variety and slows down innovation,” says Colson.

“We really caution our customers against limiting selection,” adds Brenkel, citing the need for products that meet the needs of everyone from budget-conscious value shoppers to foodies seeking more premium options. Yes, some retailers were forced to focus on best-selling SKUs at the height of the pandemic, but that’s a short-term solution, not a strategy for building on the category’s current momentum.

In the hope that space is eventually returned, Brenkel says From the Hearth is working on several innovations that incorporate key trends around convenience, healthy lifestyles and interest in ethnic flavors. She couldn’t go into detail, but look for more information early next year.

One of the few manufacturers that is introducing new products now, Mason Dixie followed up its recent rollout of the category’s first frozen scones with three new flavors of its flagship biscuits. “We realized this past year that frozen bread consumers are really looking for familiar foods and flavors,” says Abuelhiga. “So we decided to take a more traditional approach [to product development] and go after flavors that consumers were responding to the most.”

Since garlic bread remains the most dominant product in the category, she explains, the company created an all-natural, clean-label alternative in the form of its new Garlic Parmesan biscuits. Then, after realizing its current biscuit sales were split almost evenly between buttermilk and cheddar, it added a couple of additional cheddar offerings: Cheddar & Chives for variety and regional favorite Cheddar & Jalapeno for a little ethnic flair. “We want consumers to be able to replace other bread formats with our biscuits – made with real butter and pure ingredients – in the same familiar flavors,” says Abuelhiga.

SECONDARY DISPLAY KEY

Cali’flour Foods adds a Sun-Dried Tomato variety to its line of low-carb, gluten- and grain-free flatbreads.

Beyond giving the category more permanent space for added variety and innovative new products that create excitement, manufacturers say retailers should also consider secondary displays during key selling seasons. Sales always spike during the holidays, but all of the trial earlier this year means fourth-quarter demand is likely to be through the roof, says Dan Yost, senior vp at Anaheim, Calif.-based Bridgford (bridgford.com). “That’s when retailers really need to look at additional dough items, including, perhaps in and outs, and additional shelf space so they don’t run out of stock.” He adds that retailers should also consider ‘forcing’ product from warehouses to stores.

Another way to expand selling space is to add bread and rolls to meal solution-type displays. For example, says Rick McKelvey, vp of sales and marketing at Toronto- based O’Dough’s (odoughs.com), “A few retailers are cross-merchandising our gluten-free, vegan buns with plant-based burger options.” Since the pandemic, he adds, the company has seen a significant increase in sales of its flatbreads, which gluten-free consumers cooking at home are using to create everything from paninis and bruschetta to garlic bread and pizza, opening up a myriad of cross-merchandising opportunities.

McKelvey says there’s been strong growth in the gluten-and grain-free segments, but many brands offer additional better-for-you attributes as well. For example, O’Dough’s is one of the few that’s also certified vegan while new Egg White Wraps from EggLife Foods (egglifefoods.com), Wolcott, Ind., are dairy-free and offer 5 grams of protein. Other gluten-free manufacturers are expanding flavor options. Boulder, Colo.-based Cali’flour Foods (califlourfoods. com) just added a new Sun-Dried Tomato variety to its line of keto-friendly, low-carb flatbreads (made with cauliflower, mozzarella and egg whites).

FROZEN BREAD & DOUGH

Sales in supermarkets, drugstores, mass merchants, military commissaries and select club and dollar stores combined for the 12 weeks ended June 14, according to Chicago-based market research firm IRI (iriworldwide.com). Percent change is versus the same period a year ago.

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