From Our Print Edition

After registering big gains during the post-pandemic years, the frozen breakfast category saw some rightsizing in 2024. During the 12 weeks ended Oct. 6, dollars slid 0.7%, while units fell 1.0%. However, volume edged up 0.5%, highlighting a slight shift toward bigger packages that offer better value. On the flip side, some breakfast sandwich brands have moved from four-to two-packs with “more approachable” price points that promote trial and support tighter budgets. So it’s important to offer package sizes for consumers with different ideas about what constitutes good value, including those seeking private label alternatives.

In three of the top four frozen breakfast subcategories (handhelds, waffles and other breakfast foods), store brands significantly outperformed those segments as a whole, suggesting that consumers are still squeezed for cash. But according to Circana’s new “Future of Morning” report, moderating inflation will likely result in some growth in on-the-go and away-from-home breakfast occasions through 2027, especially among Millennials and “cooking challenged” Gen Z consumers. To combat that threat, retailers should make sure their assortments include plenty of easy-to-prepare frozen breakfast options that mimic popular foodservice fare. For example, several manufacturers have added chicken and biscuit sandwiches similar to those offered by leading fast food chains to their lineups. Have you added them to your mix? Merchandising those and other handheld items in a display near the entrance to the supermarket — so shoppers can literally grab and go — would be almost as quick as a drive through. Add a microwave to the display like some c-stores do, and you could boost the convenience factor another notch.

Does your mix reflect the preferences of your core shopper?

Retailers should also be sure to offer an adequate assortment of bite-size and mini breakfast items compatible with the “breakfast snacking” trend (think breakfast bites, mini pancakes, breakfast sliders, etc.). Not only do they allow consumers to control portion size, they’re also great on- the-go options. (And they’re easy to sample.)

Circana’s report also highlights the importance of knowing your store’s demographic. Although it predicts continued demand for quick, heat-and-eat options of all types, the company says younger consumers tend to opt for frozen potatoes and breakfast sandwiches while older shoppers favor frozen pancakes, waffles and French toast. Does your mix reflect the preferences of your core shopper?

PROTEIN PULLS AHEAD

Manufacturers say that protein breakfasts are outperforming non-protein breakfasts; even in the waffle category, growth is being driven by protein-enhanced brands such as Kodiak. That’s because 64% of breakfast eaters believe a healthy breakfast starts with protein. But when inflation was at its worst, many retailers expanded their carb breakfast sets instead. While that may have made sense at the time, that’s not the direction the category is going in today.

Beyond high protein, consumers seek a wide array of other better-for-you attributes, including gluten-free, plant-based, added fruit and veggies, natural and organic, and clean label. While products in other categories that offer some of those benefits are sometimes segregated in their own doors, retailers may want to integrate better-for-you frozen breakfast products. That’s because consumers want healthy options at breakfast more so than any other meal, so better-for-you is fairly mainstream.

However, manufacturers say it’s very important to call out key better-for-you attributes with shelf tags or signage because health-focused consumers are beginning to gravitate from the frozen to the refrigerated breakfast category, which is perceived as “fresher” and, therefore, better for you. So make sure shoppers know that your frozen items are just as healthy — and they don’t go bad after a week or two.

Another attribute that retailers should call out is air fryer compatibility. Avid air fryer fans actively seek breakfast items they can prepare in America’s trendiest tabletop appliance.

Since not every consumer goes down the frozen aisle, retailers should also reserve space for frozen breakfast items in endcaps and in themed displays in higher-traffic areas. Cross-merchandising frozen SKUs with complementary items is also a smart idea that boosts basket size.