From Our Print Edition

The category saw a 21.8% jump, thanks to consumers seeking oven-ready comfort foods. But could the holidays bring even bigger gains?

[hr]

Frozen bread and dough sales rose 21.8% to $239.77 million in the 12 weeks ended Sept. 6 (versus the same period a year ago), outpacing the frozen department as a whole, according to Chicago-based market research firm IRI (iriworldwide.com).

“During high-stress times and ‘nesting’ opportunities, consumers tend to bake – a lot,” says Ayeshah Abuelhiga, founder and CEO of Baltimore-based Mason Dixie Foods (masondixiefoods.com). But when faced with ingredient shortages (and, in some cases, their own lack of skill), she explains, many of them turned to frozen bread and dough for a “half-scratch” solution. “That trial made them re-evaluate going after fresh for formats such as biscuits since fresh-out-of-the-oven taste is so much more craveable.”

And then there’s the smell, says Jackie Brenkel, director of marketing for North America at Mississauga, Ontario- based From the Hearth (fromthehearth.com). “You put our garlic bread in the oven and the aroma fills the home. It’s so comforting and nostalgic, and that’s what consumers are looking for today.”

But what about tomorrow? “We think there’s been a major behavioral shift with consumers becoming more accustomed to buying frozen food, and we think this pattern will stick for at least another year,” says Abuelhiga. But in the near term, she believes smaller holiday gatherings this winter may mean increased demand for premium quality frozen breads, rolls and biscuits – since scratch-baking for only five or six people may not be worth the effort.

As a result, says Dan Yost, senior vp at Anaheim, Calif.-based Bridgford Foods Corp. (bridgford.com), retailers need to be ready for the rush. “Sales of our versatile 1-pound Ready-Dough are up more than 48% in the last 52 weeks,” he reports. But add that to the usual holiday spike, and dough sales in November and December could easily be double what they were last year. To keep up with demand, says Yost, “Retailers should anticipate sending more cases to stores and also consider additional displays to avoid out of stocks.”

PREMIUM COMFORT FOODS GAINING

Callie’s Hot Little Biscuit adds a gluten-free variety to its artisan lineup.

Given consumers’ inclination to reach for comfort foods to help them ride out the pandemic, it comes as no surprise that more familiar products are enjoying the biggest gains. But familiar doesn’t mean average. In fact, says Alex Dzieduszycki, founder of Brooklyn, N.Y.-based Julian’s Recipe (juliansrecipe.com), higher-quality premium products are driving a lot of the category growth. “Premium but still understandable,” he stipulates, citing little consumer interest in anything too “out there” – at least right now. Other manufacturers agree.

“We’re finding that by focusing on classic, timeless products like biscuits and scones but offering them with great taste and flavor; real, simple ingredients; and fun, fresh packaging, we can make inroads in a category that’s otherwise been a bit tired and boring,” says Brys Stephens, founder of Charleston, S.C.-based newcomer Brothers Gerard Baking Co. (brothersgerard.com).

“We’ve taken a product that’s been around forever and elevated it for the better-for-you consumer,” adds Carrie Morey, founder of North Charleston, S.C.-based Callie’s Hot Little Biscuit (calliesbiscuits.com), which offers all-natural, artisan biscuits hand-made in the traditional Southern style.

Even familiar flavors are popular, says Abuelhiga of Mason Dixie Biscuits, which recently pivoted to “a more traditional approach” around the creation of new items. “We saw that garlic bread was still the most dominant product in the category, so we cut out the artificial flavors and oils and produced a natural, clean label answer with our new Garlic Parmesan Biscuits,” she explains. The company also added two variations of its Cheddar Biscuits (which sell almost as well as its flagship Buttermilk variety): Cheddar Chive and Jalapeno Cheddar. “We even introduced a Pumpkin Spice variety for the fall since that’s such a popular, comforting flavor that isn’t going away,” says Abuelhiga.

Julian’s Recipe is also sticking with proven winners. Introduced earlier this year, the company’s new Truffle Butter Baguette is doing surprisingly well, says Dzieduszycki, who believes a slew of new truffle-infused products in categories such as salty snacks have made the flavor almost mainstream. The company’s next rollout – a pair of Italian-inspired butter-filled ciabatta baguettes that it hopes to debut at Expo West – also falls into the familiar-with- a-twist category, says Dzieduszycki. “It will be a nice complement to our French butter-filled baguette.”

Citing “insatiable demand,” Dzieduszycki and company are also working on developing plant-based options (Julian’s Recipe already offers cauliflower-based waffles). But other than Caulipower’s Sweet PotaTOASTS and Birds Eye’s new Cauliflower Breadsticks, the category hasn’t seen a lot of nationally available, mainstream plant-based offerings yet. However, most manufacturers believe it’s only a matter of time.

The gluten-free segment, on the other hand, is a bit more developed. Callie’s just rolled out what Morey believes could be the first mass market gluten-free frozen biscuits. “We sell out of them every day at our bake shops,” she says of the decision to add a frozen variety. “We just didn’t realize the pent-up demand for such a product.” Made by hand “with an incredible flour,” the new sandwich-style biscuits are offered in four- rather than Callie’s usual six-packs in order keep retail pricing in line.

VARIETY, CROSS-MERCHANDISING KEY

Pre-pandemic, says Brenkel, manufacturers were starting to see some contraction of the frozen bread and dough category at retail. But after watching sales skyrocket in recent months, it’s time to return that space and give consumers the choices they desire.

To that end, says Morey, she’d like to see retailers offer more small brands like Callie’s with a good story. “The pandemic has really shown us just how much consumers want to support small businesses. So retailers need to quit stuffing the freezers with the same mass-produced products that have been there forever. Adding some smaller brands with loyal followings can make your sets a lot less stale.”

“Keeping too many underperforming SKUs from legacy brands has really limited frozen bread performance,” adds Stephens of Brothers Gerard. “So make room for fresh, innovative brands that are doing simple products better.”

Dzieduszycki also suggests more cross-merchandising with complementary products like, say, pasta skillet meals. Portable cases right next to the filet mignon would be ideal, he adds. “You really have to think about usage occasions and merchandise accordingly.”

FROZEN BREAD & DOUGH

Sales in supermarkets, drugstores, mass merchants, military commissaries and select club and dollar stores combined for the 12 weeks ended Sept. 6, 2020, according to Chicago-based market research firm IRI (iriworldwide.com). Percent change is versus the same period a year ago.

[hr]