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Floods pose a real threat to grocers’ cold chain operations. iStock.com/Emmaphlema

It takes more than a little bad weather to slow down grocers, but increasingly frequent and catastrophic rainstorms and the flooding events that come with them are putting unprecedented pressure on their cold chains.

Precipitation from January through July has been 20.44 inches, 2.36 inches above average, making it the 11th wettest stretch in the U.S. in the past 130 years, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

July proved particularly challenging as Beryl became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic. Only one other Category 5 hurricane has ever occurred during the month of July. Beryl is one of several potential $1 billion (in damage) hurricane, tropical storm, and flooding events to hit the U.S. this year. The hardest-hit areas for stores were in the Upper Midwest, Northeast and Deep South, showing that coastal communities aren’t the only ones at increased risk of heavy rainfall and floods. In fact, Alaska had its wettest July on record.

TOMORROW’S FORECAST IS WRONG

Alex Heil

NOAA’s findings are echoed in a report by Alexander Heil, PhD, senior economist at non-partisan New York-based think tank The Conference Board.

“When you look at these events, they certainly have become more frequent,” says Heil. “And it’s not only the frequency that’s important but also the storm severity.”

He says tropical storms and hurricanes gain strength by drawing energy from warm surface water as they travel.

Warming ocean temperatures are creating “a legitimate concern” that storms will become exponentially more destructive in the future. Adding to the challenge for grocers and others in the path of storms is that the dynamics of warmer ocean temperatures fueling storms have also made it more complicated for weather forecasters to predict their severity and path.

“They used to say, ‘Oh, it’s uncertain whether or not this tropical storm will turn into a category one hurricane,’” says Heil. “Now it’s like, it might feasibly end up a category three or four, just because the rate of the strength increase is much more pronounced.”

In addition, warmer air temperatures increase humidity, resulting in more rain falling during storms. Grocers doing business in Houston know what havoc significant rainfall can bring.

Hurricane Beryl hit the nation’s fourth-largest city with up to 15 inches of rain in some areas during its first 24 hours, overwhelming municipal drainage infrastructure. Heil says existing systems are not set up to take on more than a half to three-quarter inches of rain hourly.

‘It’s not only the frequency that’s important but also the storm severity.’

“There’s just no chance that the infrastructure can cope with those kinds of events,” warns Heil. “The rates of water that communities have to deal with have increased significantly, and the infrastructure is not able to withstand it.”

A sobering note is that the damage Beryl did to Houston wasn’t particularly significant compared to other storms that have hit that city. That was of little consolation to the more than one million people and many businesses left without power for days in the wake of the storm. Those who managed to avoid some of Beryl’s worst impacts have elevated the foundations of their homes and businesses in recent years.

STAGGERING ECONOMIC COSTS

More frequent and destructive floods come with substantial economic and human costs.

According to the Joint Economic Committee’s Democratic staff, the most conservative estimate of the annual impact of flooding across the U.S. is about $180 billion. Costs include “commercial, municipal, and residential infrastructure replacement; economic output loss; and physical and mental health care.” The same research estimates that total costs could range as high as $496 billion annually.

‘There’s just no chance that the infrastructure can cope with those kinds of rainfall events.’

Heil says that areas and properties at flooding risk identified on FEMA (Federal Emergency and Management Administration) maps are likely only about half of those under threat.

“With businesses, it’s not just the water damage; flooding can also have adverse effects on electric systems that can cause power outages, which is especially relevant for food refrigeration in warehouses and stores,” says Heil.

Flooding is a significant concern for trucking goods because vehicles can get stuck in standing water, and alternative and more expensive routes may need to be taken to move goods from point A to B.

“Businesses need to plan for the consequences of flooding, not just for what it means for where the product goes, but also their supply chain workforce,” says Heil. “If there’s severe flooding, you suddenly find that workers can’t come to work. Their homes have been flooded. They’re not showing up for their regular shifts. Your supply chain, which depends on drivers, warehouse workers and others, doesn’t have the people it needs to meet the demands of the business.” This scenario augurs potential negative consumer experiences, including out-of-stock situations.