From Our Print Edition

Although inflation is cooling, the bread and dough category continues to heat up as consumers still struggling to make ends meet opt to stay home for dinner — and breakfast and lunch. During the 12 weeks ended Dec. 1, total sales jumped 3.6% (versus the same period in 2023) to $448.37 million across channels, outperforming the frozen department as a whole, according to Chicago-based market research firm Circana.

The frozen fresh baked bread/roll/biscuit subcategory saw its dollar sales rise 3.1% to $343.56 million while frozen dough registered a 3.5% gain to $90.59 million. In both segments, however, private label was a key growth driver, underscoring consumer efforts to stretch their dollars further. But according to manufacturers, even premium national brands offer better value than fresh bread.

‘Nowhere else in the store can you get three loaves of bread for under $7.’

“Nowhere else in the store can you get three loaves of bread for under $7,” says Heidi Robinson, division sales manager at Anaheim, Calif.-based Bridgford Foods, which offers a three-pack of frozen Ready-Dough. “We really believe that is one important reason why the frozen bread category is doing so well… It [offers] fresh-baked bread at a lower price.” (The aroma is just a bonus, she adds.)

In addition, says Izzy Laanaba, senior director of brand management at Columbus, Ohio-based T. Marzetti Co., “Consumers need not worry about spoilage with frozen bread and dough, making it an economical choice that not only reduces food waste but also maintains quality after extended storage.” Frozen items also make last-minute meal prep a lot easier since they’re already in the freezer, eliminating the need to race to the supermarket.

“We live in a busy world,” says Amy Collins, co-owner and CEO of Dallas-based RoRo’s Baking Co. “Consumers want delicious items, but they have to be convenient.” Frozen items meet that need.

PLENTY OF ROOM FOR GROWTH

T. Marzetti’s new Texas Roadhouse Mini Rolls have already grabbed the No. 6 spot in the frozen bread category.

Frozen dough category leader Rhodes Bake-N-Serv has put new product development on the back burner the past few years, choosing instead to optimize its current offerings. In fact, reports company president and CEO Kenny Farnsworth, Salt Lake City-based Rhodes recently installed a new, more efficient line that has significantly improved the quality and consistency of its Warm & Serve rolls. That said, Farnsworth believes there’s still plenty of room for growth in what’s sometimes described as a “mature” category, “so we intend to begin releasing new items again this year.”

The early success of T. Marzetti’s new Texas Roadhouse Mini Rolls suggests Farnsworth is right about the category’s upside potential. Currently available exclusively at Walmart, the product was introduced last summer. But it has already moved into the No. 6 spot on the list of top sellers, according to Circana. The frozen rolls come in a ready-to-bake pan with a honey cinnamon glaze that mimics the honey cinnamon butter offered by Texas Roadhouse. Not only does the new SKU tap into the “minis” trend, it also offers a more premium, restaurant-quality experience, says Laanaba, who calls premiumization “a major opportunity” for retailers looking to grow category sales.

The folks at RoRo’s couldn’t agree more. Premium items will never outsell mainstream offerings, explains Collins, but they will bring a new consumer to the set and increase the market basket as a whole. She suggests offering “fun” flavor profiles, including limited-edition seasonal varieties that consumers are already accustomed to seeing in the refrigerated dough set. For its part, RoRo’s recently added Jalapeno Cheddar Parker House Rolls to its portfolio, and in 2025 it will debut Pumpkin Spice and Cranberry Walnut Cinnamon Rolls for the holidays.

Truly Indian Frozen Naan gives consumers an alternative to shelf-stable options made with preservatives and dough conditioners.

“We have seen how successful holiday and seasonal refrigerated sets are each year, but frozen has never fully embraced that opportunity,” says Collins. However, “We fully believe the consumer is ready for seasonal items in frozen.”

Another way retailers can elevate their frozen bread and dough sets is to add more ethnic items for consumers looking to replicate Indian, Chinese or Mexican restaurant meals at home. “There is definitely a gap in the market for ethnic bread options,” especially among Gen Z and Millennial shoppers in search of more global culinary experiences, says Rasa Kumar, senior vp at Edison, N.J.-based ADF Foods. The company recently introduced Truly Indian Frozen Naan at Whole Foods Markets, offering consumers an alternative to shelf-stable naan, which contains preservatives and dough conditioners. Hand-crafted in India and baked in tandoor ovens, the product comes in both Tandoori and Garlic flavors.

CLEAN LABELS A PRIORITY

Although the premium trend seems to fly in the face of consumers’ need to save money, “We believe consumers at every price point are gravitating toward better-for-you products made with ingredients they can pronounce,” says Brys Stephens, founder of Brothers Gerard Baking Co., Charleston, S.C.

While most manufacturers agree that demand for clean labels is growing — in every category — the jury is still out on frozen bread products described as “healthy.” Says one supplier, “Many retailers dedicated additional space to the ‘healthy bread’ segment a few years ago. While these breads have a high dollar ring and great margins, they simply do not have the volume.” As a result, “Many of these same retailers are taking back that space for higher volume garlic bread and toast.”

The one exception may be the gluten-free segment, which continues to welcome new frozen bread and dough items. In fact, category leader T. Marzetti introduced Gluten Free Texas Toast (Garlic and Five Cheese) under its New York brand late last year. More than 10 years in the making, the dough-based product is made with a unique flour alternative, so it offers the soft, satisfying texture and taste as conventional bread, “something gluten-free consumers have long sought but rarely found,” says Laanaba.

As of 2023, she reports, almost 25% of consumers were following a gluten-free diet, and the gluten-free food market is projected to grow at a 9% to 10% CAGR, reaching more than $13 billion by 2027.

FROZEN TAKES A BITE OUT OF COOKIE DOUGH SALES

Whole Foods’ frozen cookie dough is a hit on TikTok.

Cookie dough has been a refrigerated department staple for decades, but it’s starting to carve out a place for itself in frozen as well. Dollar sales shot up 16.8% to $14.21 million during the 12 weeks ended Dec. 1, driven primarily by private label (+26.5%), according to Chicago-based Circana. But if TikTok is to be believed, the frozen Brown Butter Chocolate Chunk Cookie Dough at Whole Foods Markets is one reason why the subcategory is doing so well.

We spotted the product, which TikTok calls “the best pre-made cookie dough out there,” in Whole Foods’ aptly named Bake at Home case. Along with pre-portioned cookie dough (both mini and extra large), the case featured a variety of other frozen dough items, including cinnamon rolls, turnovers and scones, as well as frozen garlic bread, biscuits and pie. All of the products are packed in clear clamshells so consumers can see exactly what they’re buying.