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Any way you slice it, sales are on the rise. But manufacturers say ongoing supply chain issues could hamper growth through the first half of the year.

During the 12 weeks ended Dec. 26, frozen bread and dough dollar sales rose 2.9% to $343.09 million, powered by a 4.7% gain in the bread segment,

MYBREAD Bakery’s Original Flatbread Pitas offer consumers a gluten-free alternative to traditional bread and rolls.

according to Chicago-based market research firm IRI (iriworldwide.com). However, category units (-2.7%) and volume (-3.8%) were down, indicating short-term growth is likely being driven by inflation. Still, compared to the same period in 2019, category dollars are up 18.1% and units, 10.7%, suggesting frozen bread and dough consumption is truly on the rise.

“In 2020, when baking at home was insanely popular, new records were set. This year can’t quite reach those peaks, but certainly sales remain elevated versus the 2019 pre-pandemic normal,” says Anne-Marie Roerink, principal at Lakeland, Fla.-based 210 Analytics.

Last year’s sales remained strong because “the lifestyle slowdown that occurred because of COVID-19 led to people spending more time in the kitchen and with their families,” says Dan Yost, senior vp at Anaheim, Calif.-based Bridgford Foods. “They were able to take the time to use frozen bread and rolls doughs and discover that fresh baked bread hot from the oven is really, really good. That trial is now leading to repeat sales.”

Plus, demand is still shifting from restaurants and other foodservice establishments to grocery stores, says Ross Perkins, COO for Baltimore-based Mason Dixie Foods. “Consumers are making food at their homes and spending fewer dollars going out to eat,” he explains.      

PLAN AHEAD FOR SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS

While suppliers expect continued growth in the category this year, ongoing supply chain issues and limited frozen logistics capacity could limit gains, according to Perkins.

“From warehousing to trucking to ingredient suppliers, every step of the supply chain has faced constraints, and we don’t expect those to be resolved in the first quarter of 2022,” he says.

‘In 2020, when baking at home was insanely popular, new records were set. This year can’t quite reach those peaks, but certainly sales remain elevated versus the 2019 pre-pandemic normal.’

As a result, retailers should communicate their merchandising plans — particularly for holidays such as Easter — to suppliers well ahead of time “to ensure that vendors can provide products in the volumes the retailer needs,” Perkins suggests. “Because of supply chain constraints, it’s challenging for emerging vendors in particular to produce additional volume on short notice.”

Cerelia relaunches its Wewalka refrigerated dough collection under the new Jus-Rol brand.

During the Easter, Thanksgiving and Christmas selling seasons, retailers may want to add another display to avoid out-of-stocks,” adds Yost.

Carrie Morey, founder of Charleston, S.C.-based Callie’s Hot Little Biscuit, agrees that supply chain problems are a major hurdle for the industry. “With an increase in demand and a decrease in packaging, shipping boxes and ingredients, we are seeing longer turnaround times for the product to get from our bakery to the grocery store,” she reports. Still, Callie’s recently launched its first multi-flavor box of frozen biscuits. The “Biscuit Bash Box” comes with 30 of the bakery’s biscuits in five different flavors.

“We wanted to give our customers a one-stop-shop for holiday baking,” says Morey. “But what we are realizing is that this assorted pack is being purchased not just for special occasions like holidays and gifting, but also for everyday use.”

HEALTHY WRAPS HIT SUPERMARKET FRIDGES

While many manufacturers of traditional frozen breads and doughs have put new product launches on hold until supply chain pressures ease, makers of

For holidays — or every day — the Biscuit Bash Box from Callie’s Hot Little Biscuit includes 30 biscuits in five flavors.

alternative products are going full steam ahead with new paleo and keto-friendly, gluten-free, and vegetable-based items.

For example, Chicago-based Egglife Foods recently added a new Sweet Cinnamon flavor to its refrigerated egg white-based wraps, which offer “a unique, and much needed, alternative to tortillas,” says chief sales officer Ross Lipari.

“We took the traditional carb-laden tortilla and created an incredibly versatile product that is low-carb, no sugar, low calories and high in protein — and can be made as indulgent or savory as one would like. So the wrap acts as more than just a vessel but something that adds nutritional value for consumers,” he says. The product is also grain-free, gluten-free, dairy-free, soy-free, paleo and keto-friendly.
Another healthy entry comes from Ventura, Calif.-based Outer Aisle, which adds Broccoli Sandwich Thins to its veggie-based wrap lineup. Currently sold in the refrigerated section at Sprouts Farmers Market stores nationwide (though they can also be sold frozen), the new addition “makes it easy for people to eat more veggies and opt for healthier foods without any fillers or processed carbs,” says Outer Aisle founder and CEO Jeanne David.

Broccoli Sandwich Thins are made from broccoli, whole cage-free eggs, parmesan cheese and nutritional yeast. The keto-friendly, grain- and gluten-free wraps contain a full serving of fresh broccoli, 7 grams of protein and 1 gram of net carbs per serving.

Meanwhile, MYBREAD Gluten Free Bakery, Racine, Wis., is now selling its frozen Original Flatbread Pitas at select Walmart stores around the country. Consumers use the pitas to make a range of dishes, such as crispy pizzas and fluffy wraps or as a substitute for naan bread. In addition to being gluten-free, the vegan pita contains no dairy, eggs, nuts or soy.

“MYBREAD represents a new era of gluten-free products that are of improved quality, taste, texture and variety,” says founder and CEO Dan Gallagher. “As someone with Celiac disease and a member of the Celiac community myself, I understand that gluten-free consumers are no longer satisfied with the same old options.”

Meanwhile, on the dough side of the refrigerated segment, Columbus, Ohio-based Cerelia just relaunched it Wewalka lineup under the new Jus-Rol brand. The Jus-Rol family includes Family Size Pizza, Round & Thin Pizza, Flatbread, Puff Pastry, and Pie Crust. All of the refrigerated products are non-GMO, with no artificial flavors or colors, hydrogenated oils, high fructose corn syrup, or bleached flour, according to the company.

Outer Aisle expands its Sandwich Thins lineup with a new Broccoli variety.

2022 OUTLOOK BRIGHT

With new product innovation and continued shopper demand, the outlook is bright for bread and dough this year. “We are not yet through this pandemic, and people are comfortable in their homes, preparing meals for themselves or entertaining with loved ones,” Morey notes.

“Sales will continue to be strong this year because consumers are still baking in their own kitchens,” agrees Perkins. “The major constraint that will impede continued growth is ongoing supply chain issues and limited frozen logistics capacity. These problems are industrywide and will impact the overall growth in the category.”